Solar and Storage Manufacturing Cost Analysis

NLR analyzes the costs for upstream photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage materials production and finished component manufacturing.

These manufacturing cost analyses focus on specific PV and energy storage technologies—including crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium gallium diselenide, perovskite, and III-V solar cells—and energy storage components, including inverters and batteries. NLR also has established capabilities in critical materials production costs modeling.

These analyses are often based on bottom-up cost models for multiple components along the supply chain, offering a detailed look at cost drivers. The key outputs of these analyses are:

• Minimum sustainable prices to cover direct cost of goods sold (COGS); overhead (R&D, SG&A); and financing and profit for debt and equity stakeholders
• Step-by-step and total manufacturing costs for a given process, to identify cost drivers
• Roadmaps identifying potential pathways for cost reduction
• International manufacturing costs and U.S. competitiveness analysis.

Bottom-Up Manufacturing Cost Modeling

Many NLR manufacturing cost analyses use a bottom-up modeling approach. Input data for the cost of materials, equipment, facilities, energy, and labor are collected for each step in the given production process through primary interviews with manufacturers and material and equipment suppliers.

This approach leads to detailed insights about the cost for individual materials and production. 

The NLR models also quantify the difference in product manufacturing costs across the globe. Users can examine the array of country-specific cost drivers for manufacturing within the detailed cost analysis models (DCAM) platform, which is free and available to the public. 

Minimum Sustainable Price

This video was produced when the laboratory operated as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The laboratory is now the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR).

Historical and Future Cost Modeling

Since 2010, NLR has been conducting bottom-up manufacturing cost analysis for certain technologies—with new technologies added periodically—to provide insights into the factors that drive cost reductions over time.

NLR also creates roadmaps that illustrate how innovations, increased production volume, and other factors could drive future cost reductions.

View the Historical Cost Model Results for Solar PV Module Manufacturing chart on Tableau.

Publications

The Crystalline Silicon Solar PC Supply Chain and U.S. Market Cost Scenarios, NLR Presentation (2025)

Photovoltaic (PV) Module Technologies: 2020 Benchmark Costs and Technology Evolution Framework Results, NLR Technical Report (2021)

Research and Development Priorities to Advance Solar Photovoltaic Lifecycle Costs and Performance, NLR Technical Report (2021)

Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Manufacturing Costs and Sustainable Pricing: 1H 2018 Benchmark and Cost Reduction Road Map, NLR Technical Report (2020)

III-V-Based Optoelectronics with Low-Cost Dynamic Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy, Crystals (2019)

Find more solar manufacturing cost analysis publications.

Tutorials

Watch these videos to learn about NLR's techno-economic analysis (TEA) approach and cost modeling for PV technologies. They're part of NLR's Solar TEA Tutorials video series. These videos were produced when the laboratory operated as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The laboratory is now the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR).

Approach and Methodology for Techno-Economic Analysis of PV Modules

Cost Modeling for Specific PV Technologies

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